RHB下调INSTACO评级

以下是网友放上i3investor网的帖，关于RHB下调INSTACO的评级和原因。


We are turning cautious on Instacom given that two of its major shareholders had pared down their interests in the company. With limited visibility on contract flows and to err on the side of caution, we cut our FY13/FY14 forecasts by 14%/29% respectively. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from BUY), with a lower MYR0.29 FV (from MYR0.51), based on a 10x FY14 P/E. 

* Share/warrant selldown. In the last two months, the public faces of Instacom – Anne Kung, CEO and Thomas Ngu, director of sales and project management – had reduced their stake in the company. We gather that Anne Kung’s 14.5% equity interest in Instacom is unchanged, while Thomas Ngu pared his stake to 7.8% (from 14.5%). However, both had disposed of all of their warrants (collectively, 29% or 102m units). 

The other two major shareholders, Chan Chuck Yan and Wong Say Khim, did not participate in the selldown. 

* Selldown by insiders. We are alarmed by the recent development as Anne Kung and Thomas Ngu are important individuals at Instacom from the operating perspective. When contacted, they were not able to provide satisfactory explanations. Hence, we are adopting a cautious stance on the company and its prospects going forward. 

* Forecasts. Given limited visibility on the group’s contract flows and erring on the side of caution, we remove the fibre contribution of MYR25m-26m and MYR205m worth of jobs from 1M Utama SB from our financial model. We cut our FY13/FY14 forecasts by 14%/29%, as these job wins in 2H13 as guided by Instacom have yet to materialise. 

* Risks. Key risks are: i) growing trend among telcos to share their networks, ii) regulatory and execution risks in setting up its infrastructure assets, and iii) a slower-than-expected takeup of its services. 

* Valuation & recommendation. Following the downward revision in our forecasts and ascribing to a lower P/E multiple of 10x (from 13x) on FY14 EPS, we derive a lower MYR0.29 FV (from MYR0.51). We incorporate a higher discount factor of 50% (from 30%) against the target P/Es of local mobile operators and regional/global tower-related companies of about 20x to reflect its limited business visibility. All in, we downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from Buy).

我一直以来我买进某公司的股票时，都是抱着相信管理层的信誉和操守，如果公司大股东的言谈和行为j举动不相符时（即讲一套，做一套），我会对他们很失望，甚至可能会毫不犹豫地把股票卖掉，亏钱也在所不惜。

INSTACO一直以来给我的讯息是，公司未来的前景亮丽，加上管理层有雄心壮志，所以我看好它。

最近两个大股东一直售股，一个脱售股票，一个卖凭单，我是认为公司大股东买卖股票是很稀松平常的事，所以目前INSTACO狂跌，我也当作是正常调整。

当然，以上的前提是，INSTACO在即将出炉的业绩不可以“太坏”。

如果业绩差，是可以理解的，业绩有好当然也会有坏，这很正常。

可是，如果业绩出现“太差”的情况，又或者业绩出现亏损，那我对大股东的可要“另眼相看”了，也要重新评估。

我最重视的，还是上市公司的那颗脑袋。

目前，我可要密切留意INSTACO的最新业绩。


千万千万别让我大跌眼镜。