Tuesday, November 19, 2013

RHB下调INSTACO评级




以下是网友放上i3investor网的帖,关于RHB下调INSTACO的评级和原因。


We are turning cautious on Instacom given that two of its major shareholders had pared down their interests in the company. With limited visibility on contract flows and to err on the side of caution, we cut our FY13/FY14 forecasts by 14%/29% respectively. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from BUY), with a lower MYR0.29 FV (from MYR0.51), based on a 10x FY14 P/E. 

* Share/warrant selldown. In the last two months, the public faces of Instacom – Anne Kung, CEO and Thomas Ngu, director of sales and project management – had reduced their stake in the company. We gather that Anne Kung’s 14.5% equity interest in Instacom is unchanged, while Thomas Ngu pared his stake to 7.8% (from 14.5%). However, both had disposed of all of their warrants (collectively, 29% or 102m units). 

The other two major shareholders, Chan Chuck Yan and Wong Say Khim, did not participate in the selldown. 

* Selldown by insiders. We are alarmed by the recent development as Anne Kung and Thomas Ngu are important individuals at Instacom from the operating perspective. When contacted, they were not able to provide satisfactory explanations. Hence, we are adopting a cautious stance on the company and its prospects going forward. 

* Forecasts. Given limited visibility on the group’s contract flows and erring on the side of caution, we remove the fibre contribution of MYR25m-26m and MYR205m worth of jobs from 1M Utama SB from our financial model. We cut our FY13/FY14 forecasts by 14%/29%, as these job wins in 2H13 as guided by Instacom have yet to materialise. 

* Risks. Key risks are: i) growing trend among telcos to share their networks, ii) regulatory and execution risks in setting up its infrastructure assets, and iii) a slower-than-expected takeup of its services. 

* Valuation & recommendation. Following the downward revision in our forecasts and ascribing to a lower P/E multiple of 10x (from 13x) on FY14 EPS, we derive a lower MYR0.29 FV (from MYR0.51). We incorporate a higher discount factor of 50% (from 30%) against the target P/Es of local mobile operators and regional/global tower-related companies of about 20x to reflect its limited business visibility. All in, we downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from Buy).




我一直以来我买进某公司的股票时,都是抱着相信管理层的信誉和操守,如果公司大股东的言谈行为j举动不相符时(即讲一套,做一套),我会对他们很失望,甚至可能会毫不犹豫地把股票卖掉,亏钱也在所不惜。

INSTACO一直以来给我的讯息是,公司未来的前景亮丽,加上管理层有雄心壮志,所以我看好它。

最近两个大股东一直售股,一个脱售股票,一个卖凭单,我是认为公司大股东买卖股票是很稀松平常的事,所以目前INSTACO狂跌,我也当作是正常调整。

当然,以上的前提是,INSTACO在即将出炉的业绩不可以“太坏”。

如果业绩差,是可以理解的,业绩有好当然也会有坏,这很正常。

可是,如果业绩出现“太差”的情况,又或者业绩出现亏损,那我对大股东的可要“另眼相看”了,也要重新评估

我最重视的,还是上市公司的那颗脑袋

目前,我可要密切留意INSTACO的最新业绩。


千万千万别让我大跌眼镜。






16 comments:

  1. 很多人都很好奇什么原因大股东一直脱售股票.
    希望即将公布的业绩会不错吧.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Bursa 也有在十月初公布其原本auditor辞职,加上大股东在O3业绩发表前拼命放票,说不担心是假的。但看在大量丢票下股价不算大跌,加上有信心Q3的业绩很可能好过上一季,就等业绩公布后再打算,万一业绩不好就当作花钱买教训。

    ReplyDelete
  3. 我本来也是非常看好instaco。可是公司透明度不高,所以还在观察业绩出炉及大股东的动向,如果业绩差,在30sen以上买进的朋友就要哭了。前阵子买的股全卖了。版主手上也是有货?

    ReplyDelete
  4. 各位,

    INSTACO今天公布的业绩,依然维持,第三季的净利782万,比第二季增加20万。而且是去年的125倍,看来大股东买股纯粹是因个人原因。

    ReplyDelete
  5. 太害怕 0.265 前几天卖掉了 :(

    现在追回不太迟吧

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ah Boon,

    你还继续持有吗?

    ReplyDelete
  7. ah boon,你认为还能在加码长期收instacom 吗?它的合理股价好像是四十仙。。
    我感觉下次q report还是maintain eps 1 cent..股价应该会升,如果公司repurchase back 的话,股价应该会更高。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 最近instacom也没进热门股了,变冷门股。

      唉,上次我头脑发热,傻傻用高价买了instacom-wa。

      Delete
    2. Lee Chu,

      除非公司的业绩变坏,要不然我还是会继续持有它,我不久前也才加码了一点点。

      Delete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 在2012年的年报里看到Instaco在2002 -2012年间获得pioneer status 2012 是最后一年。2013 年 全季的业绩也已出完了在q4的季报中看到Profit before tax 和profit after tax 尽然没什么变化。在看了q4的季报才发现它们有claim回以前多缴的税可能是因为这样所以它的profit margin 那么高。到了2014年这些以前多缴的税不知到还剩多少。会对他的profit after tax 有多大影响。因为之前刚中了mmode一单对这方面也比较小心。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wei Hiong,

      谢谢提醒,我会留意留意。 :)

      Delete
  10. Q2业绩出来了,boon兄有何看法

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CY,

      和上一季作比较,有所好转,希望接下来的业绩可以维持增长。

      外面盛传OCK拿了所有的合约,不知是真是假,也不晓对INSTACO接下来有何影响?

      我也只有继续观察了。

      Delete

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